Signal of the week: Wallets holding less than 1 BTC recorded their strongest accumulation since late 2023. Over the past month alone, they added nearly 11,000 BTC — matching the amount accumulated by whale wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC over the same period. Historically, retail buying tends to accelerate during the later stages of bear markets.
The index eased slightly this week, as Bitcoin’s price recovered to $64,000 amid soft U.S. jobs data and Bitcoin accumulation. At the same time, multiple signals that historically appear near bear market bottoms are stacking up, but the market has not confirmed a bottom yet.&
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it’s severe enough to shake confidence in the market’s direction. It combines on-chain holder behaviour, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants are doing rather than what they are saying.
Score bands:
- Normal Rotation (0–24) — routine profit-taking, no structural shift
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups shifting positions, pressure uneven across the market
- High Impact (50–74) — broad stress across multiple holder groups and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Impact (75–100) — full capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations, and heavy exchange inflows at once
Week 28 (July 6–12): BII 42.3 — Elevated Repositioning
Positive signals: retail buyers and institutions are returning
Shrimps, or wallets holding less than 1 BTC, have been steadily accumulating throughout the current bear market, adding around 34,000 BTC year-to-date. More recently, however, their buying accelerated sharply. Over the past 30 days, these smaller holders, often viewed as a proxy for retail investors, increased their balances by more than 11,000 BTC — the largest monthly accumulation since late 2023.
Notably, this matches the net balance increase and potential accumulation by whale wallets (holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) over the same period. However, while whale balances can fluctuate significantly from day to day, shrimps typically accumulate much more gradually. Reaching a comparable increase therefore reflects unusually broad and persistent buying across smaller investors. Historically, retail participation tends to strengthen during the later stages of bear markets, suggesting the bottoming process may already be underway.
This view is further supported by spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which turned positive for the first time since early May, recording $197 million in net inflows. While retail investors still account for the majority of Bitcoin ETF holders, institutional participation continues to grow. Even so, the recent shift in flows remains consistent with a recovery increasingly supported by retail demand.
At the same time, average daily exchange inflows fell to 18,648 BTC — their lowest level since April. This suggests relatively little Bitcoin is being moved to exchanges in preparation for selling, leaving sell-side pressure comparatively light.
Negative signals: loss realization among LTH persists
LTH SOPR fell to 0.734, indicating that long-term holders who moved their coins this week did so at some of the deepest losses seen this year. However, long-term holders remain largely inactive when it comes to realizing losses, with most continuing to hold rather than sell. As a result, this dynamic is notable but unlikely to significantly increase overall market stress.
Meanwhile, stablecoin net outflows deepened to an average of -$194 million per day, the weakest reading since mid-May. This suggests fresh capital is leaving the crypto market rather than being positioned for new purchases.
Long liquidations accounted for 73% of all forced liquidations, indicating that leveraged bullish positions continue to bear the brunt of the market’s deleveraging pressure.
Mixed signals: a cluster of bottoming signals is forming
STH NUPL is forming higher lows while LTH NUPL continues to make lower lows — a pattern that has historically emerged in the later stages of bear markets, as short-term participants begin to stabilize while long-term holders absorb the remaining downside. At the same time, both realized loss momentum and MVRV momentum are printing divergences with Bitcoin’s price, suggesting that selling pressure and valuation stress are easing.
None of these signals individually guarantees a bottom. But they are arriving as a group, which is how previous Bitcoin cycle lows have historically been accompanied.&
What could happen next
Bitcoin is sitting next to the 200-week SMA and the middle band of the daily Bollinger Channel, both near $62,500. This zone has been tested repeatedly in recent weeks without either side decisively winning. A sustained hold above it could open the path toward $68,000, where the short-term holder cost basis is located. Crossing that level would return most recent buyers to profit and meaningfully reduce the overall selling pressure.
In turn, If bulls fail to hold above $62,500, $60,000 and $58,000 are the next potential support levels. The shorter-term picture adds a layer of caution. Daily and weekly timeframes are primarily showing bullish signals, but four-hour and lower timeframes are showing bearish divergences in MACD and RSI. This suggests that a short-term correction or period of limited upward momentum is possible before any sustained recovery takes hold.
The web content provided by CEX.IO is for educational purposes only. The information and tools provided neither are, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, or a recommendation, to buy, sell or hold any digital asset or to open a particular account or engage in any specific investment strategy. Digital asset markets are highly volatile and can lead to loss of funds.
The availability of the products, features, and services on the CEX.IO platform is subject to jurisdictional limitations. To understand what products and services are available in your region, please see our list of supported countries and territories. This page includes additional links to information about individual products, and their accessibility.
You can get bonuses upto $100 FREE BONUS when you:
💰 Install these recommended apps:
💲 SocialGood - 100% Crypto Back on Everyday Shopping
💲 xPortal - The DeFi For The Next Billion
💲 CryptoTab Browser - Lightweight, fast, and ready to mine!
💰 Register on these recommended exchanges:
🟡 Binance🟡 Bitfinex🟡 Bitmart🟡 Bittrex🟡 Bitget
🟡 CoinEx🟡 Crypto.com🟡 Gate.io🟡 Huobi🟡 Kucoin.
Comments