Coinbase is predicting Bitcoin could see a December recovery based on macro conditions but theres some important caveats.

Their research team is pointing to improving liquidity and markets pricing in about a 92% chance of a Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting. As of December 4th the odds of a rate cut jumped to 92%, which has often been supportive for risk assets like crypto in past cycles. They're also tracking global money supply which has been expanding lately.

Back in October Coinbase actually predicted weakness in November followed by a December reversal and so far that's playing out. Bitcoin is hovering around $90k after dropping from highs near $100k last month.

However the big wildcard is Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the rate decision press conference. Analysts say if Powell sounds hawkish about 2026 policy it could put a cap on any rally even if they cut rates. His previous hawkish remarks in November contributed to the selloff we just saw.

Market sentiment is still pretty fearful right now. Both institutional and retail investors are hesitant to jump back in which is keeping markets in limbo. The technical picture shows Bitcoin already retested the $80k area and bounced off support tho.

One positive catalyst is speculation that Kevin Hassett might become the next Fed Chair in 2026. He's seen as way more dovish which would be bullish for crypto long term.

So basically the setup looks decent for a December recovery but everyones gonna be watching what Powell says super closely. One wrong comment could derail things fast.